Putin has been backed into a corner and has now resorted to nuclear rhetoric. He has also mobilized 300,000 troops to the war front in Ukraine. It is now no longer a “special military operation”, but has now escalated to him putting Russia on a war footing. The question now is how does the West react to the ugly, new realities?
The West has become increasingly confident in recent months and has boosted military supplies and aid to Ukraine. The HIMARS weapon system has been particularly effective for the Ukrainians in getting behind enemy lines and attacking supply lines and Military Infrastructure. The recent counterattack was particularly devastating for the Russians. Seeing Russian troops flee so chaotically was a real thrill and Ukrainians have shown incredible resiliency in pulling off that surprise, devastating attack. That of course has consequences.
Putin, who is still rational in some regards, sees these latest setbacks and the massive boost from the West and feels he has to dangle the threat of a nuclear attack to make the West think twice about sending more advanced weapons, to stem the tide somewhat. Nuclear war is mutually assured destruction for all of us and the West has to be decisive and nimble in responding to this escalatory threat. Putin reiterated he was not bluffing about the threat, but it is clear he does not want to or cannot afford to use Chemical or Nuclear weapons as this will suddenly make him lose the support of bystanders who have taken a neutral stance in the war so far. This includes many countries in Africa and the Middle East whose neutrality Putin badly needs in his war efforts strategy which happens to also include information warfare. War is like a Chess game albeit with brutalities and life-changing circumstances for many.
The solution is for the West to focus more on fighting the Economic battles properly while supplying much-needed weapons to Ukraine to fight the Military battles with the aid of proper intelligence. The time has come for the West to do less cheering of news from Ukraine and more doing themselves. The solutions to this deep malaise have to be fought for. The sanctions policy implemented after the invasion largely failed and backfired because it was not implemented properly. The world largely bore the costs with almost no preparation for it. There have now been enough troubles and grumblings of citizens of the West and its allies. They are hearing it loud and happily in the Kremlin via the many outspoken media outlets we have around the World, that have done great reporting on the war and its ripple effects around the World.
All we hear about lately has been Inflation which has slowly but surely morphed into Stagflation, Core Inflation that keeps going up, the Dollar becoming frighteningly strong, developed countries' currencies trading like EM currencies, heavily indebted developing countries using most of their GDP for debt servicing which are priced in dollars, and recent global Fx, bond and stock market routs. There has been some pushback with protests across the UK and Europe over soaring Energy prices and the winter hasn’t even kicked in yet. There have also been insolvencies for counties like Sri Lanka and huge protests in Sierra Leone.
The Supply chain issues have still not been adequately fixed and the only reason commodities have been plunging is because of demand destruction which ultimately precedes recession as it turns out to be a self-fulfilling cycle. The last gift the West wants to present to Putin is a global recession in 2023 and the West must do everything to avert this by fixing the supply chain issues to get the World economy going again. It will be devastating politically for many Leaders and lead to more instability in the World if this does not happen as this is exactly what made Putin choose to invade in the first place.
Economic, Political, and Social Stability is how to fight this war properly and isolate Russia for its utterly immoral invasion of Ukraine that is just akin to terrorism.
The West must focus on domestic affairs and a unified international axis to quell grumblings, social unrest, and uprisings. Building solidarity is very important for stability and canceling the debt of heavily indebted countries will be a great place to start, especially in light of the strengthening dollar. The only reason Ukrainians are winning this war is because of unity, resilience, and solidarity. Putin is already at war with all of us and we have to tap into the Ukrainian spirit to not only win but to build a peaceful, inclusive and sustainable future.
Peace is the victory of all that is good.
Olamide J. Bamiro
Fantastic 😍 read